3. Future trends and data – Leaders' Day library

3.1 – McCrindle (2022) Australia Street: If Australia was a street of 100 households and 250 people

View the 2022 Australia Street infographic

Demographic trends/data include:

the majority (54%) of people in the street would have been born after 1980
households split as: couple and kids (31%), couple only (27%), lone person (26%), single parent (11%)
7% of households would not have a car
3.2% of people would be Aboriginal
household income split 20% with $25k, 20% with $56k, 20% with $93k, 20% with $143k, 20% with $288k
religious belief split 43.9% Christian, 38.9% secular, 7.3% not stated, 3.2% Islam, 2.7% Hindu, 2.4% Buddhist
parents place of birth split 46% both Australian, 37% none born in Australia, 12% with one born in Australia
32% of people would have a long-term health condition

3.2 – McCrindle (2022) Equipping Students for the new world of work

View the 2022 equipping Students for the new world of work infographic

Demographic trends/data include:

76% of students see it as solely or largely their responsibility with some support from their education provider to achieve their education and learning outcomes
Top 3 platforms for students teaching themselves new skills (used daily) teachers 50%, websites 48%, Tik Tok 42%
Student ideas on their career direction 28% certain of what they want to do, 50% have a fair idea, 19% not sure, 4% no idea
Ideal employment situation 11% entrepreneur, 27% mainly as entrepreneur and an employee on the side, 48% mainly an employee but working on something they have started on the side, 14% employee only

3.3 – McCrindle (2021) Generation Alpha – born 2010 - 2024

View the 2021 Generation Alpha infographic

This infographic looks at Generation Alpha, demographic trends/data include:

Characteristics: global, digital, social, mobile, visual
New jobs: 2021 – AI specialist, 2022 – life simplifier, 2023 - Urban farmer, 2024 – Space tourism agent
Top countries of birth: India, China, Nigeria
Workforce split in 2030: Generation X - 23%, Generation Y - 32%, Generation Z - 34%, Generation A -11%

3.4 – Hickman C, et al. Climate anxiety in children and young people and their beliefs about government responses to climate change: a global survey

Read the research paper Climate anxiety in children and young people and their beliefs about government responses to climate change: a global survey

The authors argue that climate change has important implications for the health and futures of children and young people, yet children and young people have little power to limit its harm, making them vulnerable to climate anxiety.

This study, the first large-scale investigation of climate anxiety in children and young people globally and its relationship with perceived government response found that:

respondents across all countries were worried about climate change (59% were very or extremely worried and 84% were at least moderately worried)
more than 50% reported each of the following emotions: sad, anxious, angry, powerless, helpless, and guilty
more than 45% of respondents said their feelings about climate change negatively affected their daily life and functioning, and many reported a high number of negative thoughts about climate change (eg, 75% said that they think the future is frightening and 83% said that they think people have failed to take care of the planet)
respondents rated governmental responses to climate change negatively and reported greater feelings of betrayal than of reassurance
climate anxiety and distress were correlated with perceived inadequate government response and associated feelings of betrayal.

Go deeper

Read a CNBC news report about the findings Nearly half of young people worldwide say climate change anxiety is affecting their daily life

3.5 – SA Child Development Council (2022), How are they faring? SA 2022 Report Card for Children and Young People, Government of South Australia

Read the report: How are they faring? SA 2022 Report Card for Children and Young People

This is the third report of population-level outcomes for children and young people from birth to 18 years under South Australia's Outcomes Framework for Children and Young People (framework). The data reported under the framework’s five legislated dimensions – health, safety, wellbeing, education and citizenship, is to be used to provide an evidence-base that informs strategies, objectives, policies and funding decisions.

In the Wellbeing dimension, the report found that most children and young people in South Australia are happy, inspired and engaged. Of concern are the following trends:

About three-fifths of the students in Year 4 to Year 10 participating in the WEC reported feeling connected to an adult at school. (Measure is based on the WEC question whether there are any adults who are important to the student at their school.)
In 2022, 89% of Year 4 to Year 10 students reported that they had one or more friends in whom they could confide, down from 90% in 2019.
The 2022 WEC data indicate that 82.4% of Year 4 to Year 10 students reported feeling optimistic about life, down from 85.7% in 2019.
The proportion of Year 4 to Year 10 students that reported medium to high levels of satisfaction with life in 2022 was 79%, down from 80.9% in 2019
The enrolment rate of Aboriginal three-year-olds in quality preschool programs was 81.5% in 2021, down slightly from 84.1% in 2017.
The 2022 WEC data indicate that 78.2% of Year 4 to Year 10 Aboriginal students in government schools reported feeling optimistic about life, down from 81.4% in 2019.
The proportion of Year 4 to Year 10 Aboriginal students in government schools that reported medium to high levels of satisfaction with life in 2022 was 75%, down from 77.2% in 2019.

In the Education dimension, the report found that most children and young people in South Australia have positive experiences of learning. Of concern are the following trends:

A marginal increase in the proportion of children being developmentally vulnerable is observed between 2015 and 2021.
The proportion of Year 7 students achieving at or above the national minimum standard in numeracy was highest in 2016 (95.2%) but declined to 92.6% in 2021.
The proportion of young people (15-19 years) with disability that were partially or fully engaged in school, work or further education in SA was 81.5% in 2021 down from 84.8% in 2016.
The proportion of Year 7 Aboriginal students achieving at or above the national minimum standard in numeracy has declined continuously from 2016 to 2021.
The proportion of Aboriginal young people (15-19 years) studying and/or training and/or working was 67.1% in 2021, down from 70.9% in 2016. (The denominator only includes the number of young people aged 15-19 years who gave a valid response in the Census.)
The proportion of Aboriginal young people (15-19 years) with disability that were partially or fully engaged in school, work or further education was 72.9% in 2021, down from 84.7% in 2016. (The denominator only includes the number of young people with disability aged 15-19 years who gave a valid response in the Census.)
The school attendance rate for Aboriginal students in Year 1 to Year 10 has been falling from 2017 to 2021

“National comparison shows that, proportionally, more children and young people under 20 years live in disadvantaged socio-economic circumstances in South Australia. In 2021, more than half of all children and young people (53.6%) lived in disadvantaged socio-economic circumstances, compared to 38.9% nationally. Of these, 26% lived with the most disadvantage (19.3% nationally).” (SA Child Development Council, 2022)

3.6 – Stevenson, M (2022) Education for human flourishing

Read Education for human flourishing

The paper builds on a series of OECD publications on how people might learn (the 2017 Innovative Learning Environments); what they might learn (the OECD Learning Framework 2030; and challenges for education systems (Building the Future of Education, 2021). These publications reflect a desire among OECD countries to strengthen and renew the value of education to countries, economies, and individual lives.

Stevenson explores new thinking on the purposes of education and presents the concept of Education for Human Flourishing. He then discusses underpinning orientations, and three competencies that seem to distinguish human intelligence from that of machines: 1. adaptive problem-solving, 2. ethical decision-making and 3. aesthetic perception, each with a suggested approach to assessment, which might underpin education for human flourishing.

Stevenson positions education as the accelerant of brain development by monitoring the progress, difficulties and errors encountered in learning. Learning should therefore be structured around 4 processes:

attention – which amplifies the information the brain focuses on
active engagement – which encourages the brain to test new hypotheses
error feedback – which compares the brains predictions with reality and corrects its models
consolidation – which automates what we have learned.

Stevenson argues that system design approaches require significant adjustments and extensions to current expectations regarding equity, what we learn and how.

In the final section he suggests trajectories for education system design (equity, AI-based education, eco-systemic approaches to education technologies) noting that research, dialogue and consultation is underway through the OECD to validate and strengthen this thinking, but also to enrich it with new ideas and approaches.

Go deeper

Watch a video of Tony Mackay and Michael Stevenson, Senior Advisor at OECD

“Education for human flourishing increases the moral onus on creating a level playing field: contemporary human flourishing is for everyone, or it is for no-one.” (Stevenson, M. 2022)

3.7 – OECD 2018, The Future of Education and Skills – Education 2030 – The Future we Want

Read report: The Future of Education and Skills – Education 2030 – The Future we Want

This paper describes a learning framework for school systems to answer 2 key questions about education for the future:

What knowledge, skills, attitudes and values will today’s students need to thrive and shape their world?
How can instructional systems develop knowledge, skills, attitudes and values effectively?

The report argues that school systems will need to address 3 world challenges - environmental, economic and social – to ensure the sustainability of people, profit, planet and peace through partnership, focussing on:

Broader education goals – individual and collective
Learner agency
Broader set of knowledge, skills, attitudes and values in action
Competencies to transform society and shape our future

It identifies 5 common challenges for school systems in responding to this:

Curriculum overload - As a result, students often lack sufficient time to master key disciplinary concepts or, in the interests of a balanced life, to nurture friendships, to sleep and to exercise.
Curricula reforms time lags – The gap between recognition, decision making, implementation and impact is generally too wide.
Content quality - Content must be of high quality if students are to engage in learning and acquire deeper understanding.
Equity - Curricula should ensure equity while innovating; all students, not just a select few, must benefit from social, economic and technological changes.
Implementation - Careful planning and alignment is critically important for effective implementation of reforms.

In response they discuss "design principles" for changes in curricula and education systems including:

Concept, content and topic design – student agency, rigour, focus, coherence, alignment, transferability and choice
Process design – Teacher agency, authenticity, inter-relation, flexibility and engagement.

“In the face of an increasingly volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous world, education can make the difference as to whether people embrace the challenges they are confronted with or whether they are defeated by them.” (OECD, 2018)